Story

Sri Lanka: Waiting for the Worst

As the government's push to rout Tamil Tiger rebels in the north intensifies, so too have security measures in the south. In the past, when under heavy pressure, the Tigers have ramped up attacks on civilians in government-held areas.

The streets of the capital, Colombo, are a maze of checkpoints and barricades, armed guards at every turn, though not enough to stop the bomb that finally went off on Saturday. At least 45 people were wounded when a package detonated in the downtown Pettah market, a busy commercial area. No one claimed the bombing, but it had the Tiger imprimatur. And it was expected.

Dsc_1221guardlankapc_2

Over the course of several weeks coming and going from Colombo, residents said the city was unnervingly quiet. Since a May 16 bomb attack that killed 12 people and wounded 85, no major suicide or hit-and-run attacks had taken place.

It would be easy to attribute the calm to the efforts of the security forces, but violence-weary Sri Lankans know better. Terror can always find an opening, they told me.

The Tigers are widely credited with pioneering the use of suicide bombers, particularly women. In 1991, a female "Black Tiger", as their hailed within the group, blew herself up next to then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in Tamil Nadu state, killing him instantly. Compared to men, they can easily slip through the cracks, as a spate of recent bombings in Iraq has shown.

The Tigers had declared a temporary cease-fire for a summit of South Asian leaders held in Colombo early last month. The government did no such thing, continuing its "all out" offensive in the northern Wanni region, claiming more dead rebels each day. Some commentators said the Tigers were too consumed with defending their last stronghold to coordinate strikes in the south.

Quite the opposite. Although the Tigers have never felt the squeeze they are now, they have proven to be a ruthless and reflexive force when outgunned. Leader Prabhakaran can count still count on hundreds of ultra-loyal cadres to do his bidding.

Saturday's bombing was touted by military officials as another sign the Tigers are desperate. This may be. But they can still retreat to remote jungle areas if their political capital, Kilinochchi, is overrun. It would be comparable to the early 1970's, when the movement was nothing more than a handful of angry young Tamils with stolen weapons. Only leaders have accrued decades of experience, better arms, and more hardened agents to their employ their deadly methods.

A government flag could soon be planted in the north. But unless Tamil grievances are taken seriously, violence will always find its way to the center.