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Since the elections, which most major opposition parties boycotted, the Sudanese parliament is dominated by Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP). And the NCP also dominates the institutions of the state more than at any time since they came to power in a military coup back in 1989. The post-election crackdown on dissident voices means that opposition positions are not getting airtime much in the local media either. So I've been seeking out the opposition leaders in Khartoum to hear their views on Sudan's future.
My first interview was with the man who many here believe could have been the President of Sudan – had he not made a last-minute withdrawal from the race in this year's election. His name is Yasir Arman, and he is something of an enigma. Though he belongs to the same northern ethnic group as President Omar al-Bashir – and indeed many other members of the NCP, he has spent the past 25 years of his life as a member of the main southern Sudan opposition group, the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army/ Movement (SPLA/M).
My second interview was with an equally intriguing character, Dr Mariam Sadiq al-Mahdi. Spokeswomen for the northern opposition Umma Party, she is part of a political dynasty here in Sudan. Her father, Sadiq al-Mahdi, has twice led the country and was the last elected prime minister before he was overthrown in the military coup that brought Bashir to power. Moreover she is the great great grand-daughter of Mohamed Ahmed al-Mahdi, the Sufi sheikh who led his Mahdist movement to revolt against foreign rule of Sudan in the Turko-Egyptian period. The Madhi is considered the founder of Sudan (and for many British, his name is associated with the infamous beheading of their General Gordon, on the steps of what is now the Republican Palace in Khartoum.)
Both Mariam Sadiq al-Mahdi and Yasir Arman are highly educated and articulate advocates for their political vision of Sudan. The main topic of conversation with them – and indeed with anyone I meet in Sudan right now – is the upcoming referendum in January next year, when southern Sudanese will get to vote on whether to become an independent nation. It is exactly six months today until the referendum, and the general consensus here is that if the southern people do get to vote freely, they will chose independence.
Both "Dr Mariam" as she is known here and Yasir Arman are resolute opponents of the NCP. Both note that in the aftermath of the April 2010 elections, human rights violations and media censorship by the government have increased. Their views on the upcoming referendum are similar, yet different in interesting ways. I'll post edited transcipts later, but a few select highlights:
Yasir Arman acknowledges that as a northerner himself he would like it if Sudan stayed unified, but is quick to point out that there is no point in unity if the status quo is the basis. Better, he says, for the south to get its independence now and leave unification as a project for a future generation – at a time when Khartoum is not ruled by those in power today.
Dr Miriam is more forceful in her desire for unity – as are other non-SPLM opposition parties I have spoken with this week. They believe that while the SPLM has been very weak during its time in government in the north, it at least provided some moderating influence that will be lost if the south leaves. Nonetheless, she says the Umma party are focused on one thing – not seeing a return to war. If there is to be secession so be it, but let it be a "brotherly separation."
In terms of making the case for unity the Umma Party are trying to delink the referendum vote from the current policies of the NCP. With the omnipresence of the NCP right now it is too easy to forget that 'this too may pass.' Dr Mariam worries that southerners will make the choice to separate based on their dislike of NCP policies, overlooking the fact that northern opposition groups - and indeed many northerners - have the same dislike. And when it comes to the Umma party at least, they fully imagine the eventual collapse of the NCP and a future Sudan led by the people who today oppose the NCP.